I had fun doing the Drew Bledsoe one and since I’ve done a lot of research on JJs stats lately for another thread I decided I may as well do one for him as well. This is all assuming he plays a full, injury free season. BIG assumption, I know. Julius Jones has yet to play an entire season but he still has showed a great deal of promise, the following prediction will take into account his 2004 and 2005 stats.
In 2003 Dallas ran the ball 515 times. In 2004 the team rushed 449 times. In 2005 the total went back over 500 to 521. I believe the low rushing total in 2004 was mainly due to the lack of a competent RB when Jones was hurt and that the 2006 total should be closer to the 515 – 521 mark thanks to the Jones/Barber combo. For this prediction I’m going to place the total number of carries, for the team, at 515 (or about 32 per game).
Over the past two seasons Julius Jones has averaged about 22 carries per game played (24 per game in 2004, 19 per game in 2005). I would expect his average next year to be slightly lower than that because of Barbers effectivness as a backup/situational guy. In the second half of last season, when both Barber and Jones were healthy and playing Barber averaged 9.5 carries per game. In light of this, and the 32 carries per game I predict, I will place Jones’ carries to be about 21 per game. This leaves 1 or 2 carries per game for other backs/ WRs on reverses, something that sounds about right. This would give Jones 336 carries for the year.
When trying to predict Jones’ stats for the season it is more difficult than just projecting last years stats over a full 16 games, one must take into account how he performed in Lone Setback and 2 WR sets. I’m choosing to use the 2 WRs set stats as opposed to the 2 TE set stats as many times when a team puts in two TEs they only have 1 WR on the field as it is mainly a “large” formation that also includes a fullback. This will not be the case in the Cowboys offense next year so I belive looking at the 2 WR stats and the Lone Setback stats will be
Over the past two seasons Jones had carries in 2 WR sets 208 times for a total of 824 yards and 3.96 YPC. In this same time span Jones has carried the ball 135 times in situations where he was the only running back in the back field. In these 135 carries he has 718 yards for 5.3 YPC. When looking at these stats it becomes clear that the new offense is not simply tailored to be more effective in the area of passing but it also plays to Jones statistical strengths as a runner. Expecting Jones to average 5.3 yards per carry, however I do not think it would be unrealistic for him to maintain and perhaps slightly exceed the 3.96 YPC he has averaged in 2 WR sets. Because of the effectivness Jones has in the formation we will be predominately running next year I do not think it is unrealistic to place Jones’ YPC mark at 4.1 YPC, though in this post I will decrease it slightly for reasons I will point out later.
As a reciever Jones has caught the ball 29 times for 182 yards (6.3 YPC) and 0 TDs in the Lone Setback formation. In 2 WR sets Jones has caught the ball 17 times for 116 yards (6.8
YPC) and 0TDs. The total amount of balls Jones has caught over the past two years is 52 and he has never caught a TD pass. I’ll set Jones YPC this year at 6.5 and figure him on catching about 25 balls.
Because the way the splits are reported it is difficult to get an accurate report of how many TDs Jones scored in the formations mentioned, so to project his TD and Fumble stats I will simply take his statistical averages over the past two years and figure out what the equivelant would be over 336 carries. In his first two seasons Jones 2.6 % of the times Jones ran the ball he scored a TD.
With this in mind Jones’ stats over 16 games would project to be something like this. Note that the totals in yards are slightly less than what the raw numbers would predict, however since
Dallas will not run ever play out of their 2 TE 2 WR set I cannot assume that Jones stats will only reflect that formation:336 carries for 1285 yards (3.8 YPC) 9 TDs 5 Fumbles 25 catches for 162 yards (6.5 YPC) 0 TDs
I do not believe these are unrealistic stats at all if Jones stays healthy. I realize that it is a big question about whether or not Jones can stay healthy but I honestly don’t believe he is injury
prone, despite his recent history. I honestly hope these posts are not coming across as “homeristic” I try to be as unbiased as possible and do not doctor the numbers or try to find favorable ways to present the data, I post everything that I calculate.
This past season those stats would have put Jones at #10 on the rushing list, right ahead of Willis McGahee and right behind Thomas Jones.